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Seminario CEA-MIPP: Italo Lopéz-García (University of Southern California): «Measuring Work Capacity» (joint work with Kathleen Mullen (University of Oregon), Nicole Maestas (Harvard University)).

Los invitamos al ciclo de  SEMINARIOS ACADEMICO CEA- MIPP:

Cuándo: Miércoles 12 de noviembre – 12:30 PM Santiago.

Dónde: Sala Consejo (401)- Beauchef 851, piso 4 | Departamento de Ingeniería Industrial.

Tema: Measuring Work Capacity (joint work with Kathleen Mullen (University of Oregon), Nicole Maestas (Harvard University)).

Speaker: Italo Lopéz-García (University of Southern California)

Abstract:

Labor economists have been trying to estimate work capacity for decades. The issue has taken on new urgency for three reasons. First, rapid population aging in the United States and elsewhere is slowing economic growth and increasing fiscal pressure on Social Security and healthcare systems. Second, policy responses increasingly rely on delaying retirement—such as raising eligibility ages for Social Security benefits—but it remains unclear whether older individuals can work longer. Third, the growth of disability insurance programs has strained public budgets and raised concerns about who can work and what jobs they can perform.

To address this gap, we develop a novel measure of work capacity based on the (mis)match between individuals’ functional abilities and the job demands of all occupations in the U.S. economy. To construct this measure, we collect self-reported functional abilities from a sample of 4,000 individuals in the Understanding America Study (UAS), harmonized to the ONET database of 52 ability requirements across roughly 900 occupations. To correct for potential bias in self-reported abilities, we administered a battery of cognitive performance tests across five domains—oral, written comprehension, memorization, numeracy, and inductive reasoning—each aligned with its corresponding ONET ability. These tests are used to estimate individual-level bias measures and adjust self-reports and work capacity. The resulting measure provides a comprehensive framework for quantifying how age-related declines in abilities affect the capacity to work and for assessing how AI and automation may reshape job demands, work capacity, and well-being.