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SEMINARIOS ACADEMICO CEA- MIPP: “Lumpy Forecasts”, Javier Turén (Instituto de Economía, PUC Chile).

Los invitamos al ciclo de  SEMINARIOS ACADEMICO CEA- MIPP:

Cuándo: Miércoles 19 de marzo – 12:30 PM Santiago.

Dónde: Sala Consejo (401) – Beauchef 851, piso 4 | Departamento de Ingeniería Industrial.

Tema: “Lumpy Forecasts”

Speaker: Javier Turén (Instituto de Economía, PUC Chile).

Abstract:

Professional forecasters adjust inflation forecasts in a lumpy way—forecasts are changed infrequently, and when adjusted, they are revised by a significant amount. As the forecasting horizon shrinks, the frequency of revisions, the size of revisions, and forecast errors decrease. Using a fixed-event forecasting framework, we assess the role of the consensus forecast and private information in shaping forecast revisions, both at the extensive and the intensive margins. A model of Bayesian belief formation with forecast revision costs and strategic con- cerns (i) delivers lumpy forecasts consistent with the survey evidence, (ii) rationalizes forecast efficiency tests, and (iii) generates state-dependent responses to inflation volatility. We pro- pose a two-stage procedure to cleanse lumpy forecasts and obtain a measure of underlying inflation beliefs.

*favor confirmar asistencia, para coordinar la solicitud de almuerzos*

Más información se encuentra disponible en la página web MIPP:

https://mipp.cl/es/events_category/seminario/